Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Emancipation

After Antietam, Lincoln proceeded with his plan to proclaim the Emancipation of three million slaves.  It was a bold act that some of his closest advisers, and members of his cabinet, opposed.  But he was determined to proceed and knew that his act would change the nature of the war.  Instead of a war to preserve the Union, the war would now be seen as a crusade to end the national disgrace of slavery.

Of course, the end of slavery had only practical effect where Union forces were in control, and this was not the case in most of the 750,000 square mile Confederacy.  The plantation economy was already severely strained with cotton markets cut off by military blockade.  And, the loss of slave labor would change the economics of cotton, rice and tobacco production.

But, there was still a war to win, and Lincoln was determined to press aggressively to destroy Robert E. Lee's Army of Northern Virginia.  Lincoln sacked McClellan after Antietam when the general refused to follow up on his repulse of Lee's invasion.  Ambrose Burnside (he of the grandiose sideburns) replaced McClellan and in December marched south to the environs of Fredericksburg VA, on the Rappahannok River only 60 miles from the Confederate capitol at Richmond.

Lee was entrenched across the river in a nearly unassailable position.  (It seemed at times that Union commanders forgot that Lee was a superb military engineer).  Burnside hurled his army of 100,000 against Lee and was thrown back with heavy losses.  The Army of the Potomac fell back, having been routed by the rebels, and retreated toward Washington. 

Many thought this terrible defeat would cancel out the effect of Antietam and cause Lincoln to reconsider his decision.  But on January 1, 1863 Lincoln signed and issued the Proclamation.  It immediately freed 50,000 slaves and would apply as Union armies advanced.  It did not make slavery illegal - that would be left to the passage of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution in 1865.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Longer shadows

Freddie and Fannie just announced payment relief for unemployed borrowers.  It appears these folks can have an up to 12 month moratorium on payments.  The effect for the real estate market is to make the already persistent inventory shadow even longer.

Recent data on home values is mixed as usual.  Only local data is worth taking into account in business decisions - the national numbers are just guesses, and the market will be troubled in most places for years.  So plan accordingly.  Don't react to these frequent spots of good news in a national context. 

Rental prices are increasing as the young folks who used to buy in the 25-35 years are renting, and commercial construction of rental units is improving.

Altos, FHFA, Case/Shiller, AVMs, are still good sources for local trends but treat each home as a risk management assignment and enlist the real estate pros with realistic outlooks and demonstrable success valuing and selling home in our long winter of discontent.

When a complex assignment comes in, tag-team the deal; put your best people on it.  These times are not for those short on experience or for the faint of heart.