Emancipation

After Antietam, Lincoln proceeded with his plan to proclaim the Emancipation of three million slaves.  It was a bold act that some of his closest advisers, and members of his cabinet, opposed.  But he was determined to proceed and knew that his act would change the nature of the war.  Instead of a war to preserve the Union, the war would now be seen as a crusade to end the national disgrace of slavery.

Of course, the end of slavery had only practical effect where Union forces were in control, and this was not the case in most of the 750,000 square mile Confederacy.  The plantation economy was already severely strained with cotton markets cut off by military blockade.  And, the loss of slave labor would change the economics of cotton, rice and tobacco production.

But, there was still a war to win, and Lincoln was determined to press aggressively to destroy Robert E. Lee's Army of Northern Virginia.  Lincoln sacked McClellan after Antietam when the general refused to follow up on his repulse of Lee's invasion.  Ambrose Burnside (he of the grandiose sideburns) replaced McClellan and in December marched south to the environs of Fredericksburg VA, on the Rappahannok River only 60 miles from the Confederate capitol at Richmond.

Lee was entrenched across the river in a nearly unassailable position.  (It seemed at times that Union commanders forgot that Lee was a superb military engineer).  Burnside hurled his army of 100,000 against Lee and was thrown back with heavy losses.  The Army of the Potomac fell back, having been routed by the rebels, and retreated toward Washington. 

Many thought this terrible defeat would cancel out the effect of Antietam and cause Lincoln to reconsider his decision.  But on January 1, 1863 Lincoln signed and issued the Proclamation.  It immediately freed 50,000 slaves and would apply as Union armies advanced.  It did not make slavery illegal - that would be left to the passage of the 13th Amendment to the Constitution in 1865.

Longer shadows

Freddie and Fannie just announced payment relief for unemployed borrowers.  It appears these folks can have an up to 12 month moratorium on payments.  The effect for the real estate market is to make the already persistent inventory shadow even longer.

Recent data on home values is mixed as usual.  Only local data is worth taking into account in business decisions - the national numbers are just guesses, and the market will be troubled in most places for years.  So plan accordingly.  Don't react to these frequent spots of good news in a national context. 

Rental prices are increasing as the young folks who used to buy in the 25-35 years are renting, and commercial construction of rental units is improving.

Altos, FHFA, Case/Shiller, AVMs, are still good sources for local trends but treat each home as a risk management assignment and enlist the real estate pros with realistic outlooks and demonstrable success valuing and selling home in our long winter of discontent.

When a complex assignment comes in, tag-team the deal; put your best people on it.  These times are not for those short on experience or for the faint of heart. 

Leadership Resolutions for 2012

As we continue with the no normal, new normal or whereever we land once we are out of these economic doldrums, it will take leadership - more even than technical skills and management - to succeed.  So here are a few leadership tips I have used with mid-level and senior executives:

Maintain a positive demeanor, even during heavy squalls.  Move with confidence and authority; the attitude and morale of your colleagues will be favorably influenced.

Establish clear priorities, complemented by clarity in direction you give to people.   Avoid vagueness and generality; change is hard enough on folks.

Emphasize short-term objectives when a few solid wins will elevate morale.  Ask people to stretch but make goals achievable, then shoot off fireworks when they are surpassed.

Go looking for bad news; get resistance to change out in the open.  Make it easy for people to let you know about what requires attention.  Don't be the last to know!

Pay close attention to transitions - people, clients, systems, economic.  Careful monitoring (but not micro-management) may be needed to keep everyone on track.

Re-recruit your best people.  Uncertainty brought about by change often makes them receptive to outside enticements.

Encourage risk-taking and initiative.  Make it clear that you will tolerate mistakes as long as there is thoughtful effort, and action-orientation toward improvement.

Protect your service quality, and reaffirm your supplier partnerships.  Stay close to customers (someone else wants their business!).  Client satisfaction is your top priority even as change might be occurring internally.

A leader's job is to make others succeed, and to feel that their contribution means something. 

Happy New Year, and here's to a prosperous 2012!

Antietam

By September 1862, the Union position was grave.  Lee had manhandled Union armies, Maryland's support for Lincoln's cause was cooling and Great Britain was threatening to recongnize the Confederacy - perhaps even use the powerful British navy to break the Union blockade of the South.  Lincoln needed a victory badly.

Knowing the stakes were high, and that another victory might tip the balance heavily in favor of the Confederacy, Lee decided to invade Maryland.  He crossed the Potomac and camped near Frederick.  There he issued orders to divide his force and gave instructions to his commanders to concentrate near Sharpsburg, along the Antietam creek.  McClellan, in command again, kept his much larger army between Lee and Washington, and moved slowly west toward the rebels. 

Then a stroke of luck - a Union officer found Lee's orders in a field near Frederick wrapped around cigars.  A rebel officer had carelessly dropped them while in camp.  McClellan now had the key to defeating Lee, since the orders revealed that the rebel forces were divided, and gave details on the routes to be taken by each of the Confederate corps. 

Lee's army was arrayed along the Antietam Creek east of Sharpsburg MD and McClellan moved into position to attack.  Lee urgently called all of his forces to oppose the Union army.  On the morning of September 17, 1862, the 75th anniversiary of the Constitution, the battle opened.  The two armies battered each other all day, with the rebels falling back then holding all along the line.  By day's end, the positions were nearly the same as morning, except for the carnage.

Antietam is the bloodiest day in American history.  More than 23,000 casualties were suffered by both armies, more than the US on D-Day.  Both sides had suffered equally, but McClellan still had large fresh forces to attack, and Lincoln urged him to destroy Lee's army.  Next morning, the attack Lee expected never came, McClellan being an inordinately cautious field commander.  Lee escaped across the Potomac.

Lincoln had a victory at last against Lee, and decided to issue the Emancipation Proclamation.  The British backed away from supporting the Confederacy.  And Maryland confirmed Union support.

Yet, by failing to destroy Lee's battered army the next day, McClellan missed a chance to end the war, and avoid the killing of another 400,000 Americans in the next 30 months of war.

Informal Survey

Over the holidays, I had a chance to talk with 6 senior executives, most in social settings, about their relocation and recruiting challenges.  While they each had concerns particular to their industry, all agreed on at least three issues about how relocation service providers can improve. 

First, there is simply not enough data and analysis supporting home sale management.  All of these execs depend greatly on industry and market data in their businesses.  Further, the analysis of this information is the key element to applying it to useful - tactical and strategic purposes.  They feel that, in spite of the wealth of data, and the gravity of the real estate situation, relo companies simply do not provide clear insights that are shared - communicated in a clear and convincing manner - with client companies.  Transferees constantly worry out loud about both departure and destination market value and time on market issues. 

Second, while the relo industry has done a good job of adopting ISO certifications and Six Sigma practices, they all say this is merely a minimum expectation on the part of client senior executives.  They see little evidence of creative, value-added processes that expand beyond these qualifiers.  After all, as one said, "these have been around a long time and apply to all industries.  I would like to see something innovative that is specific to relocation".

Third, as everyone knows, international relocations are ever more common and expected to increase.  These senior execs do not see strong language ability, or a real understanding by US personnel of the important details of international culture and destinations, or any attempt to provide support on political risk.  After all, doing business in China means doing business in a communist country with no freedom of the press or individual freedoms.  Also, the upheaval in the Middle East should elicit action by relocation providers on risk and programs to manage it.

Please comment on any of these items, and share what you are doing, or support you need, to meet these stated needs.

I hope you all enjoyed your Thanksgiving holiday.

Civil War - Union Success and Failures

In the West - states along the Mississippi - Grant had early successes against the Confederates.  At Shiloh, after nearly being pushed into defeat, he rallied the Union and defeated the army of Albert Sidney Johnston, who died from battle wounds.  As Johnston was considered the best general officer in the South, this was a serious blow to the Confederacy. 

Grant demonstrated at Shiloh, and earlier at Forts Donelson and Henry, that he was effective - a winner that Lincoln would later turn to for leadership.  However, in the East, things went from bad to worse for the Union, and Washington was under threat almost constantly.

General McClellan executed a grand strategy to assault Richmond from the southeast with a huge Union force.  The enormous logistical operation was achieved by summer, 1862, and McClellan began moving toward Richmond.  Union soldiers were so close that they could hear the bells of Richmond's St. John's Church (site of Patrick Henry's "give me liberty or give me death" speech). 

Robert E Lee assumed command of the Confederate forces and launched a series of bold attacks that drove the Union forces back to their fortified James River position in less than a week.  McClellan was outgeneraled and showed that his caution was a serious liability - and Lincoln removed him from command. Lee, on the other hand, surprised Union and Confederate leaders with his skill and audacity.  His manhandling of a much larger Union force was a preview of his illustrious career as a field commander.

 Lee followed up with another whipping of a Union force at Manassas in August (so-called "Second Manassas") and it looked like Lee was unbeatable.  The next move was an invasion of Maryland in September, setting the stage for a crucial turning point of the war.  At Antietam, America experienced the bloodiest day in its history, and in its wake Lincoln would decide to free the slaves.

Property Management

Realtors often handle property management for lenders, relocation companies and asset management companies.  According to an expert in real estate law, there are several cautions that should be addressed.

First, whenever an inspection - the routine monthly exterior inspection, not the GHI - reveals damage or an issue with the property, the realtor faces a disclosure requirement if they are also listing the property. 

Two, is the realtor that does an inspection, or looks at a report, qualified to say the foundation is sound, for example? If the realtor arranges for repairs, are they also indemnifying the repairs?  This is particularly important when handling these tasks for lenders on REO properties.

Third, the E&O policy which relators carry often excludes coverage for anything relating to property management; thus, realtors should be sure they do not need a separate policy to cover property management activities.

Fourth, are the fees that realtors charge competitive with the field service company alternative?  They are often higher, but there may be sufficient compensating factors for the higher cost.

Relocation folks: remember to get a CLUE report before you or your client takes a property into inventory.